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Cooma Tigers FC vs Canberra Juventus Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 06:00

Cooma Tigers FC

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Canberra Juventus

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.7%0-21.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.0%1-15.2%1-23.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.1%2-17.9%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.9%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-112.8%4+-28.2%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.6% 77.5% 1.29 -15.4%

Draw 15.7% 20.0% 5.00 -12.9%

Away win 18.7% 14.3% 7.00 +18.5%

Over 2.5 72.0% 78.1% 1.28 -7.8%

Over 3.5 51.8% 67.6% 1.48 -23.3%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 77.3% 84.7% 1.18 -8.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 39.4% 2.54 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 66% / xG 3.0-1.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 3–0 6.1%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cooma Tigers FC3.0

Canberra Juventus1.3

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COOMA TIGERS FC · PPG 2.30

CANBERRA JUVENTUS · PPG 1.80

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.74 for Home, form 2.30 vs 1.80 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cooma Tigers FC (H) 65.6%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -15.4%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.9%

Canberra Juventus (A) 18.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cooma Tigers FC face Canberra Juventus in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cooma Tigers FC a 66% chance, the draw 16% and Canberra Juventus 19%, so Cooma Tigers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Cooma Tigers FC and 1.3 for Canberra Juventus (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cooma Tigers FC are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.80 for Canberra Juventus. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 4-2.

Cooma Tigers FC vs Canberra Juventus Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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