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Canberra Olympic vs Cooma Tigers FC Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 04:30

Canberra Olympic

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Cooma Tigers FC

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.9%0-25.5%0-35.2%0-4+7.4%1 1-02.0%1-15.7%1-28.0%1-37.6%1-4+10.7%2 2-01.5%2-14.1%2-25.8%2-35.5%2-4+7.8%3 3-00.7%3-12.0%3-22.8%3-32.7%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% 21.7% 4.60 +5.4%

Draw 20.9% 23.8% 4.20 -7.3%

Away win 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Over 2.5 67.2% 76.9% 1.30 -12.6%

Over 3.5 47.3% 58.1% 1.72 -18.6%

BTTS 64.3% 73.5% 1.36 -12.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 42.0% 2.38 +8.1%

Away O1.5 67.0% 78.7% 1.27 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob64.3%

A 55% / xG 1.5-2.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.0%

#2 1–3 7.6%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 2–2 5.8%

#5 0–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra Olympic1.5

Cooma Tigers FC2.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA OLYMPIC · PPG 1.00

COOMA TIGERS FC · PPG 1.88

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.38 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Canberra Olympic (H) 23.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.3%

Cooma Tigers FC (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra Olympic face Cooma Tigers FC in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra Olympic a 24% chance, the draw 21% and Cooma Tigers FC 55%, so Cooma Tigers FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Canberra Olympic and 2.8 for Cooma Tigers FC (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra Olympic are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.88 for Cooma Tigers FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 2-5.

Canberra Olympic vs Cooma Tigers FC Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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