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Canberra FC vs Belconnen United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 05:00

Canberra FC

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Belconnen United

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 93.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-10.8%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.3%1-13.2%1-21.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.2%2-16.0%2-22.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.8%3-17.6%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-019.8%4+-119.1%4+-29.2%4+-33.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.6% 90.1% 1.11 -15.0%

Draw 15.7% 12.5% 8.00 +15.4%

Away win 7.7% 6.7% 15.00 +9.3%

Over 2.5 76.0% 83.3% 1.20 -8.8%

Over 3.5 55.5% 73.5% 1.36 -24.5%

BTTS 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Home O1.5 78.4% 93.5% 1.07 -16.1%

Away O1.5 26.3% 27.3% 3.66 -2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.3%

H 77% / xG 3.8-1.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 7.8%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 4–0✓ 7.4%

#4 4–1 7.1%

#5 1–1 3.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra FC3.8

Belconnen United1.0

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.0% · O3.5 PROB 55.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA FC · PPG 2.67

BELCONNEN UNITED · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.80 for Home, form 2.67 vs 0.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Canberra FC (H) 76.6%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -15.0%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +15.4%

Belconnen United (A) 7.7%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra FC face Belconnen United in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra FC a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Belconnen United 8%, so Canberra FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Canberra FC and 1.0 for Belconnen United (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra FC are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 0.56 for Belconnen United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +37.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Canberra FC vs Belconnen United Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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