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Tuggeranong United vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:00

Tuggeranong United

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Queanbeyan City

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.1%0-23.6%0-32.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.7%1-18.2%1-27.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.1%3-15.5%3-24.8%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.3%4+-23.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 44.4% 2.25 -0.8%

Draw 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Away win 34.4% 42.6% 2.35 -19.2%

Over 2.5 68.2% 71.4% 1.40 -4.5%

Over 3.5 46.0% 52.1% 1.92 -11.7%

BTTS 63.1% 75.8% 1.32 -16.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 58.8% 1.70 -4.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.5% 1.77 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuggeranong United2.0

Queanbeyan City1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TUGGERANONG UNITED · PPG 2.40

QUEANBEYAN CITY · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tuggeranong United (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -0.8%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

Queanbeyan City (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuggeranong United face Queanbeyan City in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuggeranong United a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Queanbeyan City 34%, so Tuggeranong United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Tuggeranong United and 1.8 for Queanbeyan City (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuggeranong United are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Queanbeyan City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Tuggeranong United vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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