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Canberra Olympic vs Brindabella Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 04:30

Canberra Olympic

PPG 0.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWW

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Brindabella

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.2%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.8%1-14.2%1-22.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.5%2-17.1%2-23.9%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-18.0%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-014.6%4+-116.0%4+-28.8%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.8% 83.3% 1.20 -16.2%

Draw 15.8% 16.7% 6.00 -3.1%

Away win 14.4% 11.1% 9.00 +17.8%

Over 2.5 73.1% 85.5% 1.17 -14.5%

Over 3.5 53.9% 73.5% 1.36 -26.7%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 78.4% 90.1% 1.11 -13.0%

Away O1.5 35.5% 37.9% 2.64 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 12.0%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.1%

H 70% / xG 3.4-1.1 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 3–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 1–1 4.2%

#5 4–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra Olympic3.4

Brindabella1.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.1% · O3.5 PROB 53.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA OLYMPIC · PPG 0.89

BRINDABELLA · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.29 for Home, form 0.89 vs 0.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Canberra Olympic (H) 69.8%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -16.2%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -3.1%

Brindabella (A) 14.4%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra Olympic face Brindabella in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra Olympic a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Brindabella 14%, so Canberra Olympic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Canberra Olympic and 1.1 for Brindabella (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra Olympic are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 0.33 for Brindabella. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.3%. This match finished 5-4.

Canberra Olympic vs Brindabella Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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