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Canberra Juventus vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 06:30

Canberra Juventus

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Queanbeyan City

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.4%0-24.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.4%1-18.3%1-27.7%1-34.8%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.6%3-14.9%3-24.5%3-32.8%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.5%4+-23.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 44.4% 2.25 -7.8%

Draw 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%

Away win 36.6% 42.0% 2.38 -12.9%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 46.0% 56.5% 1.77 -18.6%

BTTS 63.3% 78.1% 1.28 -19.0%

Home O1.5 54.6% 60.2% 1.66 -9.4%

Away O1.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 9.5%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.3%

H 41% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra Juventus1.9

Queanbeyan City1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA JUVENTUS · PPG 1.67

QUEANBEYAN CITY · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Canberra Juventus (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -7.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

Queanbeyan City (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra Juventus face Queanbeyan City in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra Juventus a 41% chance, the draw 22% and Queanbeyan City 37%, so Canberra Juventus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Canberra Juventus and 1.9 for Queanbeyan City (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra Juventus are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.22 for Queanbeyan City.

Canberra Juventus vs Queanbeyan City Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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