Leagues / VENEZUELA / Primera División
Primera División
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 68 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
55.9%
1X2
38/68
50.0%
O/U 2.5
34/68
41.2%
BTTS
28/68
52.9%
Exact score
36/68
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
21
Settled
52.4%
Hit rate
11/21
1.86
Avg odds
-5.0%
ROI
-1.1u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=9 77.8% HIT · AVG 1.80 · +37.0% ROI
BTTS · N=7 42.9% HIT · AVG 1.86 · -20.6% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.95 · -48.8% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.00 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+80.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
100%
Hit
+71.7%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
12
Bets
33%
Hit
-36.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
5
Bets
60%
Hit
+7.6%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 2 PICKS · 2 HIT · 0 MISS
2 SEPT Zamora FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC BTTS 2–5 HIT2 SEPT Caracas FC vs Portuguesa FC BTTS 1–1 HITAugust 2026 // 11 PICKS · 6 HIT · 5 MISS
31 AUG UCV vs Rayo Zuliano HO1.5 4–1 HIT31 AUG Puerto Cabello vs Anzoátegui FC HO1.5 3–0 HIT30 AUG Trujillanos FC vs Monagas SC BTTS -4% 3–1 HIT30 AUG Deportivo Tachira FC vs Caracas FC Home -21% 0–0 MISS30 AUG Portuguesa FC vs Metropolitanos FC — NO PICK 2–2 —30 AUG Carabobo FC vs Zamora FC Home -19% 0–0 MISS30 AUG Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Home -14% 1–2 MISS22 AUG Rayo Zuliano vs Deportivo La Guaira Over 2.5 +3% 1–4 HIT22 AUG Zamora FC vs UCV BTTS -2% 2–0 MISS22 AUG Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Puerto Cabello BTTS +1% 1–1 HIT22 AUG Metropolitanos FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC — NO PICK 3–1 —21 AUG Anzoátegui FC vs Trujillanos FC HO1.5 0–0 MISS21 AUG Caracas FC vs Carabobo FC BTTS -2% 1–1 HIT