Primera División

VENEZUELA · 26 MATCHES TRACKED · 19 APR 2026 – 31 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 26 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

46.2%

1X2

12/26

76.9%

O/U 2.5

20/26

38.5%

BTTS

10/26

69.2%

Exact score

18/26

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

63.6%

Hit rate

7/11

1.86

Avg odds

+18.3%

ROI

+2.0u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.91 · +26.3% ROI

BTTS · N=5 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.80 · +8.6% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+120.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

100%

Hit

+80.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

56%

Hit

+0.1%

ROI

Match log

26 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 5 PICKS · 3 HIT · 2 MISS

31 MAY Metropolitanos vs Carabobo — NO PICK 1–5 —30 MAY UCV vs Portuguesa BTTS -7% 2–3 HIT 24 MAY Carabobo vs D. Tachira — NO PICK 1–1 —23 MAY Portuguesa vs D. La Guaira — NO PICK 0–2 —23 MAY Puerto Cabello vs UCV BTTS -0% 2–1 HIT 17 MAY Portuguesa vs Puerto Cabello Home +33% 1–0 HIT 17 MAY Metropolitanos vs D. Tachira — NO PICK 0–1 —15 MAY D. La Guaira vs UCV — NO PICK 0–0 —13 MAY Carabobo vs E. Merida BTTS -3% 1–0 MISS 13 MAY Puerto Cabello vs Portuguesa — NO PICK 2–1 —12 MAY D. Tachira vs Metropolitanos — NO PICK 1–1 —12 MAY UCV vs D. La Guaira — NO PICK 1–1 —9 MAY D. La Guaira vs Portuguesa — NO PICK 1–1 —8 MAY Metropolitanos vs E. Merida BTTS -12% 2–0 MISS

April 2026 // 1 PICK · 1 HIT · 0 MISS

25 APR Trujillanos vs D. La Guaira Away 0–1 HIT