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Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:30

Deportivo La Guaira

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Estudiantes de Merida FC

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-16.3%0-22.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.7%1-110.5%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.8%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.8%3-14.9%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 69.0% 1.45 -13.7%

Draw 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -6.0%

Away win 16.6% 14.8% 6.75 +7.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 28.9% 27.4% 3.65 +3.3%

BTTS 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Home O1.5 48.9% 58.8% 1.70 -16.9%

Away O1.5 17.0% 19.0% 5.25 -6.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 60% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.7%

#2 2–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo La Guaira1.7

Estudiantes de Merida FC0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA · PPG 1.55

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo La Guaira (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -13.7%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.0%

Estudiantes de Merida FC (A) 16.6%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo La Guaira face Estudiantes de Merida FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo La Guaira a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Estudiantes de Merida FC 17%, so Deportivo La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.6 for Estudiantes de Merida FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo La Guaira are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.92 for Estudiantes de Merida FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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