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Rayo Zuliano vs Deportivo La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:30

Rayo Zuliano

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Deportivo La Guaira

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-115.2%0-210.5%0-34.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-09.1%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-03.8%2-15.2%2-23.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.0%3-11.4%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 20.0% 5.00 +17.4%

Draw 27.8% 29.4% 3.40 -3.3%

Away win 46.3% 61.0% 1.64 -24.1%

Over 2.5 50.1% 48.8% 2.05 +2.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 27.4% 3.65 +1.5%

BTTS 50.1% 51.3% 1.95 -2.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 23.8% 4.20 +28.5%

Away O1.5 41.2% 54.1% 1.85 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob50.1%

A 46% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.2%

#2 1–1 12.6%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 0–2 10.5%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayo Zuliano0.8

Deportivo La Guaira1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYO ZULIANO · PPG 1.25

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA · PPG 2.17

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Rayo Zuliano (H) 25.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +17.4%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.3%

Deportivo La Guaira (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayo Zuliano face Deportivo La Guaira in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayo Zuliano a 26% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo La Guaira 46%, so Deportivo La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Rayo Zuliano and 1.4 for Deportivo La Guaira (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayo Zuliano are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.17 for Deportivo La Guaira. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +28.5%. This match finished 1-4.

Rayo Zuliano vs Deportivo La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions