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Anzoátegui FC vs Trujillanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 20:00

Anzoátegui FC

PPG 0.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Trujillanos FC

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.3%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.2%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.4%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.9%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Draw 22.9% 30.8% 3.25 -15.3%

Away win 23.3% 25.3% 3.95 -4.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 48.8% 2.05 +22.4%

Over 3.5 36.4% 27.8% 3.60 +31.0%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 54.9% 50.0% 2.00 +9.8%

Away O1.5 29.5% 29.4% 3.40 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anzoátegui FC1.9

Trujillanos FC1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANZOÁTEGUI FC · PPG 0.29

TRUJILLANOS FC · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Anzoátegui FC (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -0.3%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.3%

Trujillanos FC (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anzoátegui FC face Trujillanos FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anzoátegui FC a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Trujillanos FC 23%, so Anzoátegui FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Anzoátegui FC and 1.0 for Trujillanos FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anzoátegui FC are averaging 0.29 points per game versus 0.12 for Trujillanos FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Anzoátegui FC vs Trujillanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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