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Trujillanos FC vs Monagas SC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:30

Trujillanos FC

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Monagas SC

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.8%0-25.8%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.9%1-112.8%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-18.4%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 31.3% 3.20 +22.9%

Draw 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -10.5%

Away win 34.9% 45.5% 2.20 -23.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.6% 3.90 +7.2%

BTTS 52.7% 54.6% 1.83 -3.6%

Home O1.5 37.2% 33.3% 3.00 +11.6%

Away O1.5 33.1% 43.5% 2.30 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 10.9%

#3 0–0 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trujillanos FC1.3

Monagas SC1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRUJILLANOS FC · PPG 0.67

MONAGAS SC · PPG 0.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trujillanos FC (H) 38.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +22.9%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.5%

Monagas SC (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trujillanos FC face Monagas SC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trujillanos FC a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Monagas SC 35%, so Trujillanos FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Trujillanos FC and 1.2 for Monagas SC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trujillanos FC are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.00 for Monagas SC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Trujillanos FC vs Monagas SC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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