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Deportivo Tachira FC vs Caracas FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:00

Deportivo Tachira FC

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Caracas FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.1%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.9%1-110.8%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 67.6% 1.48 -20.5%

Draw 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Away win 22.3% 17.2% 5.80 +17.6%

Over 2.5 53.4% 56.5% 1.77 -5.5%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.9% 2.95 -7.1%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 63.7% 1.57 -23.2%

Away O1.5 22.9% 25.0% 4.00 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0 12.2%

#4 0–0✓ 7.9%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Tachira FC1.8

Caracas FC0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO TACHIRA FC · PPG 2.17

CARACAS FC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Tachira FC (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -20.5%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

Caracas FC (A) 22.3%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Tachira FC face Caracas FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Tachira FC a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Caracas FC 22%, so Deportivo Tachira FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Deportivo Tachira FC and 0.8 for Caracas FC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Tachira FC are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for Caracas FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Deportivo Tachira FC vs Caracas FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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