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Caracas FC vs Carabobo FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 23:00

Caracas FC

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Carabobo FC

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-110.3%0-27.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.3%1-112.6%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.7%2-17.7%2-25.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% 25.6% 3.90 +29.1%

Draw 26.1% 29.9% 3.35 -7.5%

Away win 40.8% 54.6% 1.83 -25.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 3.5 28.6% 27.4% 3.65 +2.6%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 33.0% 29.0% 3.45 +13.9%

Away O1.5 41.2% 50.0% 2.00 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.0%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caracas FC1.2

Carabobo FC1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CARACAS FC · PPG 1.22

CARABOBO FC · PPG 0.91

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Caracas FC (H) 33.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +29.1%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -7.5%

Carabobo FC (A) 40.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caracas FC face Carabobo FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caracas FC a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Carabobo FC 41%, so Carabobo FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Caracas FC and 1.4 for Carabobo FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caracas FC are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.91 for Carabobo FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +64.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Caracas FC vs Carabobo FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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