Today / Venezuela - Primera División / Zamora FC vs UCV

Zamora FC vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Zamora FC

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

UCV

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.6%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.0%1-111.7%1-27.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.0%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.5%3-14.6%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 38.2% 2.62 +4.3%

Draw 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

Away win 35.4% 40.0% 2.50 -11.5%

Over 2.5 53.9% 48.8% 2.05 +10.5%

Over 3.5 32.0% 27.0% 3.70 +18.4%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 42.1% 39.2% 2.55 +7.3%

Away O1.5 39.1% 40.8% 2.45 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 7.6%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zamora FC1.5

UCV1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAMORA FC · PPG 1.50

UCV · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zamora FC (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +4.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

UCV (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -11.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zamora FC face UCV in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zamora FC a 40% chance, the draw 25% and UCV 35%, so Zamora FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Zamora FC and 1.3 for UCV (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zamora FC are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.17 for UCV. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Zamora FC vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions