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UCV vs Rayo Zuliano Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 22:30

UCV

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Rayo Zuliano

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.2%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.9%1-19.1%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.1%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-16.3%4+-22.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 64.5% 1.55 -14.0%

Draw 21.7% 25.3% 3.95 -8.6%

Away win 22.8% 19.6% 5.10 +9.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 39.2% 2.55 -7.2%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Away O1.5 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV2.2

Rayo Zuliano0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV · PPG 1.64

RAYO ZULIANO · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UCV (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -14.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.6%

Rayo Zuliano (A) 22.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV face Rayo Zuliano in Venezuela - Primera División on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Rayo Zuliano 23%, so UCV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for UCV and 0.9 for Rayo Zuliano (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.78 for Rayo Zuliano. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 4-1.

UCV vs Rayo Zuliano Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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