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Metropolitanos FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 22:00

Metropolitanos FC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Deportivo Tachira FC

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-111.4%0-25.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.3%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.2%2-17.8%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 31.3% 3.20 +30.2%

Draw 28.8% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Away win 30.5% 46.5% 2.15 -34.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 27.2% 23.8% 4.20 +8.5%

BTTS 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Home O1.5 32.0% 32.3% 3.10 -0.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 42.6% 2.35 -23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.1%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metropolitanos FC1.2

Deportivo Tachira FC1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

METROPOLITANOS FC · PPG 2.00

DEPORTIVO TACHIRA FC · PPG 1.80

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Metropolitanos FC (H) 40.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +30.2%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Deportivo Tachira FC (A) 30.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metropolitanos FC face Deportivo Tachira FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metropolitanos FC a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Deportivo Tachira FC 31%, so Metropolitanos FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Metropolitanos FC and 1.0 for Deportivo Tachira FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metropolitanos FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Deportivo Tachira FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +35.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Metropolitanos FC vs Deportivo Tachira FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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