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Carabobo FC vs Zamora FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:00

Carabobo FC

PPG 2.23 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Zamora FC

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.0%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.5%1-19.6%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.0%3-15.9%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-14.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 73.5% 1.36 -18.7%

Draw 23.5% 25.0% 4.00 -3.6%

Away win 16.7% 11.8% 8.50 +25.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 30.3% 28.6% 3.50 +6.0%

BTTS 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Home O1.5 56.3% 65.4% 1.53 -13.9%

Away O1.5 18.2% 16.7% 6.00 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 1–1 9.6%

#4 0–0✓ 7.5%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carabobo FC1.9

Zamora FC0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CARABOBO FC · PPG 2.23

ZAMORA FC · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Carabobo FC (H) 59.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -18.7%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.6%

Zamora FC (A) 16.7%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +25.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carabobo FC face Zamora FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carabobo FC a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Zamora FC 17%, so Carabobo FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Carabobo FC and 0.7 for Zamora FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carabobo FC are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 0.89 for Zamora FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Carabobo FC vs Zamora FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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