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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 20:00

Estudiantes de Merida FC

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Puerto Cabello

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.7%0-25.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.9%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.6%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.5%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 26.3% 3.80 +47.1%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 34.7% 50.0% 2.00 -30.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 42.6% 2.35 +17.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 23.1% 4.33 +13.0%

BTTS 52.8% 52.4% 1.91 +0.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 28.6% 3.50 +32.3%

Away O1.5 35.1% 40.0% 2.50 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.8%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 0–1 9.7%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes de Merida FC1.3

Puerto Cabello1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC · PPG 1.73

PUERTO CABELLO · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes de Merida FC (H) 38.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +47.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Puerto Cabello (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -30.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes de Merida FC face Puerto Cabello in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes de Merida FC a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Puerto Cabello 35%, so Estudiantes de Merida FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 1.1 for Puerto Cabello (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes de Merida FC are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.00 for Puerto Cabello. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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