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Akhmat vs FC Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:00

Akhmat

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

4 – 1

FULL TIME

FC Rostov

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-111.6%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.1%1-113.4%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-17.7%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.9%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 40.5% 2.47 -2.9%

Draw 28.4% 31.6% 3.16 -6.2%

Away win 32.2% 32.1% 3.12 +0.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 44.8% 2.23 -4.8%

Over 3.5 20.6% 25.1% 3.98 -10.8%

BTTS 47.6% 53.5% 1.87 -11.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.9% 2.57 -21.4%

Away O1.5 25.7% 32.9% 3.04 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 0–0 12.2%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akhmat1.1

FC Rostov1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AKHMAT · PPG 1.41

FC ROSTOV · PPG 1.34

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Akhmat (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.47 · IMPLIED 40.5% EV -2.9%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.16 · IMPLIED 31.6% EV -6.2%

FC Rostov (A) 32.2%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akhmat face FC Rostov in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akhmat a 39% chance, the draw 28% and FC Rostov 32%, so Akhmat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Akhmat and 1.0 for FC Rostov (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akhmat are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.34 for FC Rostov. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Akhmat vs FC Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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