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CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:15

CSKA Moscow

PPG 1.95 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lokomotiv

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-18.4%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.8%1-112.1%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-18.8%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.2%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 51.5% 1.94 -2.6%

Draw 26.7% 26.5% 3.78 +0.6%

Away win 23.1% 26.2% 3.82 -7.0%

Over 2.5 42.7% 58.5% 1.71 -27.0%

Over 3.5 21.9% 37.7% 2.65 -25.2%

BTTS 47.6% 62.5% 1.60 -23.8%

Home O1.5 40.0% 54.6% 1.83 -26.8%

Away O1.5 17.9% 36.0% 2.78 -30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Moscow1.4

Lokomotiv0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA MOSCOW · PPG 1.95

LOKOMOTIV · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Moscow (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -2.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.78 · IMPLIED 26.5% EV +0.6%

Lokomotiv (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.82 · IMPLIED 26.2% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Moscow face Lokomotiv in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Moscow a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Lokomotiv 23%, so CSKA Moscow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for CSKA Moscow and 0.8 for Lokomotiv (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.20 for Lokomotiv. This match finished 3-2.

CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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