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Spartak Moscow vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Spartak Moscow

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Zenit

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.2%0-27.7%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.0%1-112.1%1-29.1%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.7%2-17.1%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.8%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 35.6% 2.81 -12.0%

Draw 24.7% 29.1% 3.44 -9.0%

Away win 44.1% 39.5% 2.53 +11.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.5% 1.94 +4.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.9% 3.24 +2.4%

BTTS 54.7% 58.8% 1.70 -7.0%

Home O1.5 32.4% 39.4% 2.54 -17.7%

Away O1.5 46.0% 42.0% 2.38 +9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.7%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Moscow1.2

Zenit1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 1.83

ZENIT · PPG 2.07

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Moscow (H) 31.3%

ODDS 2.81 · IMPLIED 35.6% EV -12.0%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.44 · IMPLIED 29.1% EV -9.0%

Zenit (A) 44.1%

ODDS 2.53 · IMPLIED 39.5% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Moscow face Zenit in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Moscow a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Zenit 44%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Spartak Moscow and 1.5 for Zenit (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 2.07 for Zenit. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Spartak Moscow vs Zenit Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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