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FC Krasnodar vs FC Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:30

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

FC Rostov

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.9% — a clear edge.

+17.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.1%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-18.9%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.1%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-16.4%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 61.0% 1.64 +4.6%

Draw 21.1% 24.7% 4.05 -8.7%

Away win 15.2% 18.5% 5.40 -10.8%

Over 2.5 54.1% 51.8% 1.93 +4.4%

Over 3.5 35.8% 31.6% 3.16 +13.1%

BTTS 52.7% 52.9% 1.89 -0.4%

Home O1.5 65.7% 55.9% 1.79 +17.6%

Away O1.5 23.5% 24.4% 4.10 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0✓ 10.7%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Krasnodar2.2

FC Rostov0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.38

FC ROSTOV · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Krasnodar (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +4.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.05 · IMPLIED 24.7% EV -8.7%

FC Rostov (A) 15.2%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Krasnodar face FC Rostov in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Krasnodar a 64% chance, the draw 21% and FC Rostov 15%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC Krasnodar and 0.8 for FC Rostov (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Krasnodar are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.19 for FC Rostov. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Krasnodar vs FC Rostov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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