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Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:30

Dinamo Makhachkala

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Krasnodar

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.8%0-26.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.8%1-112.3%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.5%2-17.8%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.3%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 23.8% 4.20 +50.4%

Draw 24.9% 30.9% 3.24 -11.6%

Away win 39.3% 49.5% 2.02 -20.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 45.9% 2.18 +17.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 27.2% 3.68 +16.3%

BTTS 54.7% 52.6% 1.90 +3.9%

Home O1.5 37.5% 27.0% 3.70 +38.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 45.9% 2.18 -10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 0–1✓ 9.8%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Makhachkala1.3

FC Krasnodar1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO MAKHACHKALA · PPG 1.72

FC KRASNODAR · PPG 2.13

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Makhachkala (H) 35.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +50.4%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.24 · IMPLIED 30.9% EV -11.6%

FC Krasnodar (A) 39.3%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Makhachkala face FC Krasnodar in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 36% chance, the draw 25% and FC Krasnodar 39%, so FC Krasnodar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.4 for FC Krasnodar (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 2.13 for FC Krasnodar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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