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Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Akhmat

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Krylia Sovetov

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.2%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.0%1-111.7%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-15.2%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 52.6% 1.90 -0.3%

Draw 24.1% 27.0% 3.70 -6.5%

Away win 23.4% 24.4% 4.10 -2.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 53.2% 1.88 -5.1%

Over 3.5 30.2% 32.8% 3.05 -7.9%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 52.4% 1.91 -6.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 31.3% 3.20 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akhmat1.6

Krylia Sovetov0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AKHMAT · PPG 1.64

KRYLIA SOVETOV · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Akhmat (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -0.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.5%

Krylia Sovetov (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akhmat face Krylia Sovetov in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akhmat a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Krylia Sovetov 23%, so Akhmat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Akhmat and 0.9 for Krylia Sovetov (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akhmat are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.09 for Krylia Sovetov. This match finished 3-3.

Akhmat vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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