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Baltika vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:30

Baltika

PPG 1.87 · HOME

UPCOMING

Spartak Moscow

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.6%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.0%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 26.0% 3.85 +86.7%

Draw 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Away win 24.2% 48.8% 2.05 -30.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 46.9% 2.13 +6.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.2% 3.68 +3.4%

BTTS 51.3% 53.5% 1.87 -4.1%

Home O1.5 46.4% 28.6% 3.50 +62.4%

Away O1.5 28.5% 45.7% 2.19 -22.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -8.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.3%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baltika1.6

Spartak Moscow1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BALTIKA · PPG 1.87

SPARTAK MOSCOW · PPG 1.63

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Baltika (H) 48.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +86.7%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Spartak Moscow (A) 24.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baltika face Spartak Moscow in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baltika a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Spartak Moscow 24%, so Baltika are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Baltika and 1.0 for Spartak Moscow (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baltika are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.63 for Spartak Moscow. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +62.4%.

Baltika vs Spartak Moscow Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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