Today / Russia - Premier League / Baltika vs Rubin

Baltika vs Rubin Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 17:30

Baltika

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rubin

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+18.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.0%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-112.1%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.5%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 47.8% 2.09 +5.5%

Draw 26.2% 30.7% 3.26 -8.8%

Away win 23.3% 25.6% 3.90 -5.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 42.6% 2.35 +18.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 50.7% 50.0% 2.00 +1.4%

Home O1.5 40.1% 42.0% 2.38 -4.6%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.5% 3.78 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.7%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.6%

#2 1–1✓ 12.1%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baltika1.5

Rubin0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BALTIKA · PPG 1.61

RUBIN · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Baltika (H) 50.5%

ODDS 2.09 · IMPLIED 47.8% EV +5.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.26 · IMPLIED 30.7% EV -8.8%

Rubin (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baltika face Rubin in Russia - Premier League on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baltika a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Rubin 23%, so Baltika are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Baltika and 0.8 for Rubin (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baltika are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.44 for Rubin. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Baltika vs Rubin Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Russia - Premier League Predictions