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Akron vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 10:00

Akron

PPG 0.66 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLD

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Krylia Sovetov

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.1%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.8%1-112.2%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 34.1% 2.93 +37.7%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 28.6% 40.7% 2.46 -17.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 56.5% 1.77 -4.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 36.6% 2.73 -13.7%

BTTS 54.7% 62.9% 1.59 -13.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 42.4% 2.36 -5.6%

Away O1.5 35.6% 46.9% 2.13 -24.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akron1.5

Krylia Sovetov1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AKRON · PPG 0.66

KRYLIA SOVETOV · PPG 0.81

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Akron (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.93 · IMPLIED 34.1% EV +37.7%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Krylia Sovetov (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Akron face Krylia Sovetov in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akron a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Krylia Sovetov 29%, so Akron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Akron and 1.1 for Krylia Sovetov (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akron are averaging 0.66 points per game versus 0.81 for Krylia Sovetov. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Akron vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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