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Lokomotiv vs Dynamo Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Lokomotiv

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dynamo

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.1%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.8%1-111.7%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.2%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 31.8% 3.14 +45.7%

Draw 24.3% 26.7% 3.75 -5.3%

Away win 29.3% 45.7% 2.19 -21.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 41.5% 2.41 -24.1%

BTTS 54.9% 66.2% 1.51 -17.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 43.3% 2.31 +13.0%

Away O1.5 32.8% 53.2% 1.88 -38.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -15.8%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv1.6

Dynamo1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV · PPG 1.62

DYNAMO · PPG 1.09

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv (H) 46.4%

ODDS 3.14 · IMPLIED 31.8% EV +45.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.3%

Dynamo (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.19 · IMPLIED 45.7% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv face Dynamo in Russia - Premier League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Dynamo 29%, so Lokomotiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lokomotiv and 1.1 for Dynamo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.09 for Dynamo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Lokomotiv vs Dynamo Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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