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Zenit vs Dynamo Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 11:30

Zenit

PPG 1.92 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dynamo

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.4%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-19.3%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-16.9%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-15.9%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 60.6% 1.65 -9.6%

Draw 23.3% 24.4% 4.10 -2.7%

Away win 21.9% 19.0% 5.25 +9.0%

Over 2.5 53.7% 56.5% 1.77 -5.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 35.6% 2.81 -10.6%

BTTS 50.4% 57.1% 1.75 -11.8%

Home O1.5 59.8% 58.8% 1.70 +1.7%

Away O1.5 21.1% 27.6% 3.62 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -8.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.4%

H 55% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zenit2.1

Dynamo0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZENIT · PPG 1.92

DYNAMO · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zenit (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -9.6%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.7%

Dynamo (A) 21.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zenit face Dynamo in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zenit a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Dynamo 22%, so Zenit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Zenit and 0.8 for Dynamo (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zenit are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.27 for Dynamo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Zenit vs Dynamo Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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