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Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Krylia Sovetov

PPG 1.41 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dinamo Makhachkala

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-19.8%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.2%1-113.0%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.8%2-18.6%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.8%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 39.8% 2.51 +15.7%

Draw 27.2% 32.1% 3.12 -9.1%

Away win 26.8% 32.3% 3.10 -10.2%

Over 2.5 49.8% 46.1% 2.17 +8.1%

Over 3.5 28.5% 25.8% 3.88 +6.3%

BTTS 53.1% 53.2% 1.88 -0.2%

Home O1.5 37.9% 38.5% 2.60 -1.5%

Away O1.5 27.0% 32.9% 3.04 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -8.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krylia Sovetov1.3

Dinamo Makhachkala1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KRYLIA SOVETOV · PPG 1.41

DINAMO MAKHACHKALA · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Krylia Sovetov (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.51 · IMPLIED 39.8% EV +15.7%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV -9.1%

Dinamo Makhachkala (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krylia Sovetov face Dinamo Makhachkala in Russia - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krylia Sovetov a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Dinamo Makhachkala 27%, so Krylia Sovetov are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Krylia Sovetov and 1.0 for Dinamo Makhachkala (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.06 for Dinamo Makhachkala. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.1%.

Krylia Sovetov vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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