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Alverca vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:30

Alverca

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Santa Clara

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-110.3%0-26.3%0-32.6%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.5%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.6%2-18.1%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.7%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 37.6% 2.66 -5.0%

Draw 26.9% 31.7% 3.15 -9.2%

Away win 37.4% 37.6% 2.66 -0.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 44.4% 2.25 +13.6%

Over 3.5 29.3% 23.1% 4.33 +16.1%

BTTS 52.7% 52.6% 1.90 +0.1%

Home O1.5 36.1% 36.4% 2.75 -0.7%

Away O1.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–1 10.3%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alverca1.3

Santa Clara1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALVERCA · PPG 1.43

SANTA CLARA · PPG 1.35

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alverca (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -5.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -9.2%

Santa Clara (A) 37.4%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alverca face Santa Clara in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alverca a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Santa Clara 37%, so Santa Clara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Alverca and 1.2 for Santa Clara (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alverca are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.35 for Santa Clara. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Alverca vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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