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Benfica vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 19:15

Benfica

PPG 1.84 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Estoril

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.9%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-18.7%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.4%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-17.0%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 86.2% 1.16 -24.7%

Draw 19.2% 14.3% 7.00 +20.6%

Away win 15.9% 6.5% 15.50 +87.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 72.5% 1.38 -15.3%

Over 3.5 39.5% 51.3% 1.95 -23.0%

BTTS 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 83.3% 1.20 -20.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 17.4% 5.75 +30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 65% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benfica2.3

Estoril1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BENFICA · PPG 1.84

ESTORIL · PPG 0.95

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.30 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Benfica (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.16 · IMPLIED 86.2% EV -24.7%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +20.6%

Estoril (A) 15.9%

ODDS 15.50 · IMPLIED 6.5% EV +87.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benfica face Estoril in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Estoril 16%, so Benfica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Benfica and 1.0 for Estoril (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 0.95 for Estoril. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +98.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Benfica vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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