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FC Porto vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:30

FC Porto

PPG 2.37 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Arouca

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.1%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-19.8%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.3%3-16.2%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-14.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.3% 83.3% 1.20 -33.6%

Draw 23.1% 16.7% 6.00 +23.2%

Away win 21.7% 8.3% 12.00 +96.2%

Over 2.5 50.2% 62.5% 1.60 -19.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 40.0% 2.50 -22.8%

BTTS 48.9% 46.5% 2.15 +5.1%

Home O1.5 54.9% 75.2% 1.33 -27.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 12.5% 8.00 +25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.9%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.9%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Porto1.9

Arouca0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PORTO · PPG 2.37

AROUCA · PPG 1.48

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.20 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Porto (H) 55.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -33.6%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +23.2%

Arouca (A) 21.7%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +96.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto face Arouca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Arouca 22%, so FC Porto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Porto and 0.7 for Arouca (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto are averaging 2.37 points per game versus 1.48 for Arouca. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +69.7%. This match finished 2-0.

FC Porto vs Arouca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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