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Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 19:15

Casa Pia

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Benfica

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+14.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-112.2%0-29.6%0-35.0%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.7%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.8%2-15.9%2-24.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.2%3-11.9%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 6.9% 14.50 +178.4%

Draw 25.6% 17.9% 5.60 +26.0%

Away win 47.0% 82.6% 1.21 -43.1%

Over 2.5 51.3% 62.5% 1.60 -17.9%

Over 3.5 30.0% 40.8% 2.45 -26.5%

BTTS 53.1% 46.5% 2.15 +14.2%

Home O1.5 30.2% 16.0% 6.25 +88.8%

Away O1.5 47.3% 75.2% 1.33 -37.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.1%

A 47% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casa Pia1.0

Benfica1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CASA PIA · PPG 1.17

BENFICA · PPG 2.09

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.58 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Casa Pia (H) 27.4%

ODDS 14.50 · IMPLIED 6.9% EV +178.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +26.0%

Benfica (A) 47.0%

ODDS 1.21 · IMPLIED 82.6% EV -43.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casa Pia face Benfica in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casa Pia a 27% chance, the draw 26% and Benfica 47%, so Benfica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Casa Pia and 1.6 for Benfica (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casa Pia are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.09 for Benfica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +138.4%.

Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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