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Nacional vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:30

Nacional

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Estoril

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.8%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.9%1-111.3%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 38.5% 2.60 +23.0%

Draw 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Away win 28.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.4%

Over 2.5 59.5% 54.1% 1.85 +10.1%

Over 3.5 36.5% 31.3% 3.20 +16.8%

BTTS 60.3% 60.6% 1.65 -0.5%

Home O1.5 47.9% 42.6% 2.35 +12.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 42.6% 2.35 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional1.7

Estoril1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 1.29

ESTORIL · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +23.0%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.3%

Estoril (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face Estoril in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Estoril 29%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Nacional and 1.3 for Estoril (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.14 for Estoril. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.8%.

Nacional vs Estoril Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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