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GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 19:15

GIL Vicente

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WWD ··

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Casa Pia

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+21.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-13.9%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.7%1-18.3%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.5%3-16.4%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-15.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.3% 57.8% 1.73 +21.6%

Draw 21.2% 29.4% 3.40 -16.8%

Away win 8.5% 20.8% 4.80 -35.5%

Over 2.5 51.4% 43.5% 2.30 +18.2%

Over 3.5 31.2% 23.1% 4.33 +35.1%

BTTS 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

Home O1.5 61.2% 50.0% 2.00 +22.4%

Away O1.5 16.7% 20.0% 5.00 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.8%

H 70% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 14.7%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 3–0 10.5%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

GIL Vicente2.1

Casa Pia0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.89

CASA PIA · PPG 0.92

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 1.89 vs 0.92 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

GIL Vicente (H) 70.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +21.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -16.8%

Casa Pia (A) 8.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -35.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

GIL Vicente face Casa Pia in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives GIL Vicente a 70% chance, the draw 21% and Casa Pia 9%, so GIL Vicente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for GIL Vicente and 0.6 for Casa Pia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, GIL Vicente are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.92 for Casa Pia. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.1%. This match finished 2-0.

GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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