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Nacional vs Estrela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:30

Nacional

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLL ·

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Estrela

PPG 0.99 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.0%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.6%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 43.5% 2.30 +9.5%

Draw 24.9% 30.8% 3.25 -11.5%

Away win 27.6% 32.8% 3.05 -9.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 29.4% 3.40 +7.1%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 45.5% 2.20 +7.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 37.0% 2.70 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional1.7

Estrela1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 1.58

ESTRELA · PPG 0.99

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +9.5%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.5%

Estrela (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face Estrela in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Estrela 28%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Nacional and 1.1 for Estrela (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.99 for Estrela. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 2-3.

Nacional vs Estrela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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