Today / Portugal - Primeira Liga / Estoril vs Rio Ave

Estoril vs Rio Ave Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Estoril

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Rio Ave

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.2%0-23.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.9%1-111.7%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 52.6% 1.90 -4.6%

Draw 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Away win 23.4% 26.3% 3.80 -6.7%

Over 2.5 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

BTTS 49.1% 59.9% 1.67 -18.0%

Home O1.5 47.4% 54.1% 1.85 -12.3%

Away O1.5 23.3% 34.5% 2.90 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.1%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estoril1.6

Rio Ave0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTORIL · PPG 1.34

RIO AVE · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Estoril (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -4.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

Rio Ave (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estoril face Rio Ave in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estoril a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Rio Ave 23%, so Estoril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Estoril and 0.9 for Rio Ave (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estoril are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.11 for Rio Ave. This match finished 0-2.

Estoril vs Rio Ave Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Primeira Liga Predictions