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Santa Clara vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Santa Clara

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWD ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Famalicao

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.3%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.5%1-113.1%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.3%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.5%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 38.2% 2.62 +16.9%

Draw 27.5% 34.5% 2.90 -12.2%

Away win 27.9% 36.4% 2.75 -14.0%

Over 2.5 44.8% 40.0% 2.50 +12.0%

Over 3.5 25.6% 20.0% 5.00 +16.8%

BTTS 49.1% 51.3% 1.95 -4.3%

Home O1.5 37.8% 33.3% 3.00 +13.4%

Away O1.5 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0✓ 13.5%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Clara1.3

Famalicao1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA CLARA · PPG 1.34

FAMALICAO · PPG 1.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santa Clara (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +16.9%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -12.2%

Famalicao (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Clara face Famalicao in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Clara a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Famalicao 28%, so Santa Clara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Santa Clara and 1.0 for Famalicao (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Clara are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.40 for Famalicao. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Santa Clara vs Famalicao Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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