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Vitória SC vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:30

Vitória SC

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWL ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nacional

PPG 1.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.9%0-25.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.4%1-112.3%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-18.5%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.0%3-13.9%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 58.8% 1.70 -38.8%

Draw 27.1% 28.6% 3.50 -3.1%

Away win 36.8% 21.7% 4.60 +69.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 52.6% 1.90 -0.1%

Over 3.5 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 37.8% 55.6% 1.80 -32.0%

Away O1.5 40.2% 26.7% 3.75 +50.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitória SC1.4

Nacional1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VITÓRIA SC · PPG 1.33

NACIONAL · PPG 1.05

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vitória SC (H) 36.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -38.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.1%

Nacional (A) 36.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +69.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitória SC face Nacional in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitória SC a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Nacional 37%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vitória SC and 1.3 for Nacional (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitória SC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.05 for Nacional. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +60.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Vitória SC vs Nacional Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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