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Casa Pia vs Moreirense Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Casa Pia

PPG 0.98 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Moreirense

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.6%0-26.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.3%1-111.9%1-28.5%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.2%2-25.9%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.6%3-13.7%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 43.5% 2.30 -19.7%

Draw 23.7% 32.8% 3.05 -16.6%

Away win 41.5% 30.8% 3.25 +34.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 40.8% 2.45 +31.1%

Over 3.5 34.3% 21.1% 4.75 +62.9%

BTTS 56.6% 50.0% 2.00 +13.2%

Home O1.5 38.0% 38.5% 2.60 -1.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 29.0% 3.45 +41.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob56.6%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–1✓ 8.6%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casa Pia1.4

Moreirense1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CASA PIA · PPG 0.98

MOREIRENSE · PPG 0.95

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Casa Pia (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.7%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -16.6%

Moreirense (A) 41.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +34.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casa Pia face Moreirense in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casa Pia a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Moreirense 42%, so Moreirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Casa Pia and 1.4 for Moreirense (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casa Pia are averaging 0.98 points per game versus 0.95 for Moreirense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +62.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Casa Pia vs Moreirense Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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