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Famalicao vs GIL Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:30

Famalicao

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

GIL Vicente

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.3%0-25.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-113.1%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.3%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.2%3-13.5%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.5%

Draw 27.7% 31.7% 3.15 -7.6%

Away win 35.9% 28.6% 3.50 +25.7%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 27.3% 23.8% 4.20 +8.8%

BTTS 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Home O1.5 37.2% 43.5% 2.30 -14.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 30.3% 3.30 +8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

H 36% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 10.3%

#3 0–0✓ 9.4%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Famalicao1.3

GIL Vicente1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FAMALICAO · PPG 1.42

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.17, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Famalicao (H) 36.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.5%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -7.6%

GIL Vicente (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Famalicao face GIL Vicente in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Famalicao a 37% chance, the draw 28% and GIL Vicente 36%, so Famalicao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Famalicao and 1.1 for GIL Vicente (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Famalicao are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.29 for GIL Vicente. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Famalicao vs GIL Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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