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Sporting CP vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:30

Sporting CP

PPG 2.24 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Alverca

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLD ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.0%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.5%1-15.8%1-22.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.5%2-18.4%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-18.2%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-013.7%4+-112.2%4+-25.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.0% 82.6% 1.21 -17.7%

Draw 16.2% 16.9% 5.90 -2.6%

Away win 15.8% 7.4% 13.50 +68.0%

Over 2.5 65.2% 67.6% 1.48 -3.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 46.5% 2.15 -6.5%

BTTS 54.7% 52.4% 1.91 +4.5%

Home O1.5 78.4% 80.0% 1.25 -2.0%

Away O1.5 22.8% 19.0% 5.25 +11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 68% / xG 2.9-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.5%

#2 3–0 9.2%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–1 5.8%

#5 3–1✓ 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP2.9

Alverca0.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.24

ALVERCA · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.03 for Home, form 2.24 vs 0.85 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP (H) 68.0%

ODDS 1.21 · IMPLIED 82.6% EV -17.7%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -2.6%

Alverca (A) 15.8%

ODDS 13.50 · IMPLIED 7.4% EV +68.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP face Alverca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Alverca 16%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Sporting CP and 0.9 for Alverca (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 0.85 for Alverca. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +34.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Sporting CP vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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