Leagues / POLAND / Ekstraklasa
Ekstraklasa
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming Ekstraklasa predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT18:30 Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice Over 2.5 64% 1.65 +5%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 73 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
41.1%
1X2
30/73
61.6%
O/U 2.5
45/73
54.8%
BTTS
40/73
41.1%
Exact score
30/73
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
21
Settled
47.6%
Hit rate
10/21
1.95
Avg odds
-12.1%
ROI
-2.5u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.82 · +12.6% ROI
HOME WIN · N=7 28.6% HIT · AVG 2.27 · -34.6% ROI
BTTS · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.72 · -50.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+174.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
40%
Hit
-26.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
10
Bets
40%
Hit
-33.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
5
Bets
60%
Hit
+7.4%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 2 PICKS · 2 HIT · 0 MISS
3 SEPT Raków Częstochowa vs Gornik Zabrze Over 2.5 +12% 1–2 HIT3 SEPT Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia BTTS -8% 2–1 HITAugust 2026 // 10 PICKS · 5 HIT · 5 MISS
30 AUG Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia BTTS -13% 2–5 HIT30 AUG Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice BTTS -6% 2–3 HIT30 AUG Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan BTTS -16% 2–3 HIT29 AUG Radomiak Radom vs Cracovia Krakow BTTS -9% 2–1 HIT29 AUG Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice Over 2.5 -1% 0–2 MISS29 AUG Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5 -3% 0–0 MISS28 AUG Wisla Plock vs Korona Kielce — NO PICK 0–2 —23 AUG Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin Over 2.5 +17% 0–0 MISS23 AUG GKS Katowice vs Wisla Plock BTTS -17% 5–0 MISS22 AUG Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin BTTS -14% 1–1 HIT16 AUG Motor Lublin vs GKS Katowice BTTS -11% 1–0 MISS16 AUG Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa — NO PICK 2–1 —15 AUG Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce — NO PICK 1–2 —