Leagues / POLAND / Ekstraklasa
Ekstraklasa
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 47 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
40.4%
1X2
19/47
59.6%
O/U 2.5
28/47
55.3%
BTTS
26/47
46.8%
Exact score
22/47
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
42
Settled
50.0%
Hit rate
21/42
1.74
Avg odds
-15.6%
ROI
-6.6u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=25 44.0% HIT · AVG 1.67 · -29.5% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.70 · +8.4% ROI
HOME WIN · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.11 · -1.8% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
+37.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
60%
Hit
+5.4%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
6
Bets
33%
Hit
-49.2%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
29
Bets
52%
Hit
-15.9%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 13 PICKS · 10 HIT · 3 MISS
23 MAY Cracovia Krakow vs Korona Kielce — NO PICK 1–1 —23 MAY Widzew Lodz vs Piast Gliwice BTTS -7% 2–1 HIT23 MAY Rakow C. vs Arka Gdynia Home -30% 3–0 HIT23 MAY Pogon Szczecin vs Katowice BTTS -20% 1–1 HIT23 MAY Legia Warsaw vs Motor Lublin BTTS -16% 4–0 MISS23 MAY Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock BTTS -9% 2–2 HIT23 MAY Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Over 2.5 -17% 6–2 HIT17 MAY Piast Gliwice vs Rakow C. BTTS -9% 1–3 HIT17 MAY Katowice vs Jagiellonia BTTS -18% 2–2 HIT17 MAY Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warsaw BTTS -4% 1–2 HIT16 MAY Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow BTTS -19% 3–3 HIT16 MAY Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze — NO PICK 0–1 —16 MAY Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznan BTTS -11% 1–3 HIT15 MAY Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5 -6% 0–1 MISS15 MAY Korona Kielce vs Widzew Lodz BTTS -9% 1–0 MISS