Today / Poland - Ekstraklasa / Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin

Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:15

Zaglebie Lubin

PPG 1.97 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.8%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-112.1%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.8%3-14.9%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 40.0% 2.50 +15.3%

Draw 24.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 29.5% 37.6% 2.66 -12.9%

Over 2.5 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.2% 32.3% 3.10 -3.3%

BTTS 53.3% 60.6% 1.65 -12.1%

Home O1.5 45.2% 44.4% 2.25 +1.7%

Away O1.5 32.1% 42.6% 2.35 -24.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.3%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 0–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zaglebie Lubin1.6

Pogon Szczecin1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN · PPG 1.97

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 1.41

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zaglebie Lubin (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +15.3%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Pogon Szczecin (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zaglebie Lubin face Pogon Szczecin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Pogon Szczecin 30%, so Zaglebie Lubin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.0 for Pogon Szczecin (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.97 points per game versus 1.41 for Pogon Szczecin. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - Ekstraklasa Predictions