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Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 12:45

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.8%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.4%1-111.5%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.4%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 52.6% 1.90 -0.6%

Draw 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away win 23.4% 27.4% 3.65 -8.8%

Over 2.5 52.0% 58.8% 1.70 -11.6%

Over 3.5 30.9% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 48.8% 55.6% 1.80 -12.2%

Away O1.5 24.8% 36.4% 2.75 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korona Kielce1.7

Motor Lublin0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.43

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.04

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Korona Kielce (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -0.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

Motor Lublin (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Korona Kielce face Motor Lublin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korona Kielce a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Motor Lublin 23%, so Korona Kielce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Korona Kielce and 0.9 for Motor Lublin (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korona Kielce are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.04 for Motor Lublin. This match finished 1-1.

Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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