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Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:30

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWW ·

UPCOMING

Jagiellonia

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.2%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.3%1-110.9%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.8%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 55.9% 1.79 -11.0%

Draw 23.3% 26.3% 3.80 -6.9%

Away win 26.9% 24.4% 4.10 +6.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Over 3.5 37.1% 41.7% 2.40 -11.0%

BTTS 61.5% 64.5% 1.55 -4.7%

Home O1.5 49.9% 61.3% 1.63 -18.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 37.0% 2.70 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznan1.8

Jagiellonia1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.71

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 1.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznan (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.79 · IMPLIED 55.9% EV -11.0%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -6.9%

Jagiellonia (A) 26.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznan face Jagiellonia in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznan a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Jagiellonia 27%, so Lech Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lech Poznan and 1.2 for Jagiellonia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznan are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.94 for Jagiellonia.

Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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