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Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 15:30

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWL ·

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

GKS Katowice

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.9%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.7%1-110.8%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-16.0%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.1%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 52.4% 1.91 -3.5%

Draw 23.0% 28.6% 3.50 -11.7%

Away win 26.5% 27.8% 3.60 -2.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.0% 2.50 -8.3%

BTTS 59.9% 63.7% 1.57 -6.0%

Home O1.5 52.0% 57.8% 1.73 -10.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 38.2% 2.62 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gornik Zabrze1.8

GKS Katowice1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 2.16

GKS KATOWICE · PPG 0.84

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gornik Zabrze (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -3.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.7%

GKS Katowice (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gornik Zabrze face GKS Katowice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gornik Zabrze a 51% chance, the draw 23% and GKS Katowice 27%, so Gornik Zabrze are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gornik Zabrze and 1.1 for GKS Katowice (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gornik Zabrze are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 0.84 for GKS Katowice. This match finished 2-3.

Gornik Zabrze vs GKS Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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