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Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:30

Piast Gliwice

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

UPCOMING

GKS Katowice

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.0%0-24.6%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.7%1-110.3%1-27.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.2%3-14.9%3-23.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.1%4+-22.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 41.7% 2.40 -3.0%

Draw 23.6% 27.8% 3.60 -9.0%

Away win 36.0% 37.6% 2.66 -4.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 60.6% 1.65 +5.1%

Over 3.5 40.5% 37.7% 2.65 +7.3%

BTTS 63.2% 65.4% 1.53 -3.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 46.5% 2.15 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 40% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Piast Gliwice1.7

GKS Katowice1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 1.35

GKS KATOWICE · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Piast Gliwice (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -3.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.0%

GKS Katowice (A) 36.0%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Piast Gliwice face GKS Katowice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Piast Gliwice a 40% chance, the draw 24% and GKS Katowice 36%, so Piast Gliwice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Piast Gliwice and 1.5 for GKS Katowice (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.11 for GKS Katowice. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.3%.

Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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