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Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:45

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Piast Gliwice

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.1%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-110.0%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-16.5%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.0%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 43.9% 2.28 +20.8%

Draw 23.0% 27.4% 3.65 -9.6%

Away win 24.0% 36.0% 2.78 -20.0%

Over 2.5 60.2% 60.6% 1.65 -0.7%

Over 3.5 37.5% 37.7% 2.65 -0.6%

BTTS 60.0% 64.5% 1.55 -7.0%

Home O1.5 56.3% 51.3% 1.95 +9.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 45.5% 2.20 -27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motor Lublin2.0

Piast Gliwice1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.46

PIAST GLIWICE · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Motor Lublin (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +20.8%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.6%

Piast Gliwice (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -20.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motor Lublin face Piast Gliwice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motor Lublin a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Piast Gliwice 24%, so Motor Lublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Motor Lublin and 1.1 for Piast Gliwice (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motor Lublin are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.90 for Piast Gliwice. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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